The economic war machine must feed, and I found some timely intel on ice and ice product trends on Reddit—perfectly coinciding with the revelation that Asher Elias has ordered the Goons to move.
Earlier this week (Monday), I shared a preliminary graph and post on Reddit. Admittedly, my initial numbers were off due to some less-than-stellar programming on my part. However, the core market trend remained valid, and after finalizing the data through Tuesday, June 17, there’s plenty to report.
Market Scope
Commodities – Factional Ice Products
- H – Isotopes
- He – Isotopes
- N – Isotopes
- O – Isotopes
Time Frame – 01 June to 17 June 2025
Market – The Forge
Observations
The market for ice products has and is highly volital and the move order did nothing to help things.
As you can see while the ask price stays relatively stable for everything but He-Isotopes. However, the bid prices for all shoot up.
The spread percentage graph is a graph of valleys and peaks:
He-Isotopes (June 15–17)
- Bid Price: +23.56%
- Ask Price: +44.65%
- Spread %: +269.46%
O-Isotopes (Same Time Frame)
- Bid Price: +26.73%
- Ask Price: +0.11% (flat)
- Spread %: -222%
For the Volume graphs, we see strong demand for He-Isotopes
Standard inverted market, when Ellis gives the command to move the He-Isotopes Ask Volume jumps nearly 600%.
The O-Isotope market shows inversion, but if you look back to the spread percent, this should create a situation where the ask price goes up because the margin should be greater than a loss. However, the ask price remains flat and the bid price spikes causing margins going far down.
Analysis
For O-Isotopes, demand appears driven by aggressive, even desperate, acquisition strategies. Ask prices have flatlined, creating a compression scenario, buyers want in, but sellers aren’t moving enough product.
This fits with logistics trends: the Goon freight fleet relies heavily on Gallente ships, requiring large volumes of O-Isotopes. The limited ask volume isn’t enough to support a major fleet move. While traders briefly increased volume, that surge collapsed almost immediately.
Meanwhile, the Amarr-based He-Isotope market is behaving more normally, following expected logic under stress.
Recommendations
For Traders:
This is a bad market to be in, at least for O-Isotopes. If you’re late to the Helium play, that ship may have already sailed. I expect the market to correct soon as the move completes. If you are already committed and are selling, raise your prices ASAP, otherwise you might miss the benefits.
For Miners:
Now’s your moment. Hit the high-sec factional ice belts hard. Push back against bots, farmers, and bullies. With null sec heating up again, we may be watching the start of a “Roman Empiring” scenario, where Goon sovereignty stretches too thin.
(Special thanks to u/PomegranateSlow5624 for rallying miners in Monday’s Reddit thread.)
The command to move into Delve didn’t just ignite military logistics, it sent shockwaves through the ice product markets. The bid-ask spread behavior, volume shifts, and compression dynamics reveal deeper patterns about faction fleet preferences, supply chain stress, and speculative surges.
Helium-Isotopes may have already crested, but Oxygen-Isotopes are showing signs of dangerous compression—a situation where traders risk squeezing margins into the red, especially as ask volumes stay stagnant.
I will continue monitoring these disruptions across regional markets and commodity types. This analysis is part of my ongoing commitment to delivering grounded, actionable economic intelligence for capsuleers who want to stay ahead of the curve.
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Spotted something in the market I didn’t?
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Sources
Background Information
Market Data and Code Framework
Python
- matlibplot.pyplot, pandas
Jupyter Labs
Anaconda Distribution
